Trader Talk

The headline on the trade deal — no new tariffs, some existing tariffs reduced — is positive, but something the market has long anticipated. Traders are now arguing over the impact on 2020 earnings. Bulls say several thorny issues may be on the verge of resolution and will be enough to push markets to new highs.

Scammers, fraudsters, insider traders, Ponzi schemers, stock spoofers — the Securities and Exchange Commission has seen it all. I spent a day at SEC headquarters with the regulators Chairman Jay Clayton and the co-directors of the Division of Enforcement, Stephanie Avakian and Steven Peikin. The highlight was a visit to the Forensics Lab, a copper-lined

I spent a day at the Security and Exchange Commission’s headquarters with SEC Chairman Jay Clayton and the co-directors of the Division of Enforcement, Stephanie Avakian and Steven Peikin. The highlight was a visit to the Forensics Lab, a copper-lined room where the SEC extracts data from cell phones and computers that are part of

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Brendan McDermid | Reuters President Trump’s comment that he had no deadline on a China deal has predictably thrown markets into a tizzy, as the self-imposed deadline of Dec. 15 for additional tariffs is now less than two weeks away. The market is now

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange, November 4, 2019. Brendan McDermid | Reuters It’s not very exciting, but the market keeps advancing almost every day. The S&P has been up 10 of the 13 trading days this month, yet market technicians do not seem concerned the market is getting too

A trader blows bubble gum during the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 1, 2019, in New York City. Johannes Eisele | AFP | Getty Images As the S&P 500 has broken out of its trading range into record highs, euphoria has been growing — fast. Technicians like Stephen Suttmeier

An investor watches the electronic board at a stock exchange hall on Feb. 11, 2019 in China. Visual China Group | Getty Images One of the largest indexers in the world is set to announce a new round of increases in the weighting of mainland China stocks, and the addition is generating an unusual amount

A much broader breakout in the markets may be very near. The markets have started the month with a powerful, largely-cyclical, rally. What’s missing is a significant breakout: Only 10% of the S&P are at new highs, despite a historic high for that index. Part of the reason is a big move-up in the largest

Traders work, as a screen shows Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference after the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, October 30, 2019. Brendan McDermid | Reuters October is ending strong. Here’s what’s next. The market is closing out October from a position of considerable

There’s one big word we are not hearing this earnings season. There are plenty of issues causing agita for investors this earnings season: China, industrial slowdown, auto sales slowdown. The one word that is not being uttered on conference calls: recession. The U.S. consumer — the engine of global growth — is still holding up,

A ceremony to start manufacturing new CAT 777A haul trucks at the Caterpillar Tosno factory. Sergei Konkov | TASS | Getty Images With about one-fourth of the S&P 500 reporting third quarter earnings, several high-profile earnings misses have analysts wondering if the long-feared earnings recession may be getting closer. In recent weeks, Federal Express, McDonald’s

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller came to the New York Stock Exchange to discuss his new book, “Narrative Economics.” It’s a book about storytelling: Humans understand the world by telling stories, Shiller says. “The most natural thing in our brains to talk about is gossip, okay?,” Shiller said. “We love these stories. We center around

Investing pioneer Charles Schwab came to the New York Stock Exchange floor this week to speak with CNBC about his new book, Invested, a personal memoir of the company’s history. Schwab founded an investing newsletter firm in 1963 that would be incorporated in 1971 and officially become Charles Schwab & Co. in 1973.  Price wars:

It was one of the stranger market moves of the year in an already strange week. After dropping more than 30 points on a disappointing September Non-Manufacturing ISM, the S&P bottomed 10 minutes later and rallied back to 2881, reversing almost all of the losses, and then went positive later in the morning. What happened?

The big miss on the September manufacturing is a big problem for the markets. The S&P moved in a 50 point range,  Or 1.6%, lower since the ISM report came out at 10 a.m. ET. This a very large move. Since 1998 the S&P has moved more than 1% on days the ISM has reported

The disappointing debut of Peloton is part of a larger problem: sky high valuations and money losing companies. The at-home fitness company priced at $29, the high end of the $26-$29 range, opened at $27, and closed at $25.76. First SmileDirectClub, than WeWork, then Peloton, then Endeavor, which reportedly shelved its IPO plans less than

Will the WeWork fiasco change the governance structure of upcoming unicorns? WeWork’s IPO implosion centers partly on themes that are at the heart of a hot investment strategy — Environmental Social & Governance (ESG), which emphasizes relations with employees, customers, and stakeholders, as well as the importance of proper corporate governance–leadership, pay, shareholder rights, and

The S&P is just shy of a new high. The issue is whether investors will be willing to push the markets into new high territory now that the Fed has indicated it will wait and see how the economy performs before cutting rates again. With the Fed finished, what’s next for the markets? What gets

Software IPOs are hot. Datadog is the most recent software IPO opening big. The software analytics firm initially sought to price 24 million shares at $19-$22, was quickly upsized to $24-$26, priced at $27, and opened at $40.35. It is not alone. Software as a service (Saas), where a service provider gives customers access to

Why is everyone so pessimistic? A survey of 225 chief financial officers by Duke University shows pessimism on the U.S. economy has been growing steadily this year, despite record low unemployment and a strong consumer. The quarterly Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook of 225 CFOs found that a majority of U.S. CFOs (53%) believe that

The market is rotating. Value is back. Momentum is out. Cyclicals rule. Defensives are so August. No one wants low volatility. What is it we are rotating out of, and what are we rotating into? There’s a lot of confusion about different ways to slice and dice the markets, and which stocks fall into which

The head of the SEC says more needs to be done to make it easier for companies to go public and that his office is taking a “fresh look” at allowing Main Street investors access to the private capital markets. In a speech to the Economic Club of New York on Monday, SEC Chairman Jay

Here’s the good news on earnings: Despite much hand-wringing around tariffs and the global economic outlook, overall earnings for the S&P 500 in 2019 remain “flattish,” meaning they are likely to be little changed from 2018’s record pace. The bad news: Investors remain on edge because confidence in the estimates are not high. “The wild

The controversy over China trade is spilling over into a formerly quiet area of the stock market — the business of investing in the global markets. Volume at the NYSE saw a modest spike going into the close because MSCI, one of the largest index providers in the world, rebalanced most of its global indices.

Traders and financial professionals work at the opening bell on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 6, 2019. Drew Angerer | Getty Images Corporate America’s aggressive program of buying back stock slowed in the second quarter. Data provided by Standard & Poor’s indicates that corporate buybacks totaled $166 billion in

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange. Brendan McDermid | Reuters A trade organization that oversees the dissemination of trades at the NYSE said Monday’s trading glitch was due to a “network component failure” at the the exchange’s data center in Mahwah, New Jersey. The Consolidated Tape Association (CTA) said the

Analysts are lowering their earnings estimates for the second half of 2019 and there is a chance earnings for the S&P 500 could be negative for 2019. In the last two weeks, strategists at Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have reduced 2019 and 2020 earnings estimates for the S&P 500, citing a sluggish economy, trade war

The potential currency war is adding to earnings problems. The realization that the trade war may expand from tariff wars to encompass currency wars is causing some consternation among analysts and strategists who are increasingly confused and uncertain on how to determine 2019 and 2020 earnings estimates. On Tuesday evening, Citigroup said the overhang of

The No. 1 registered investment advisor in America is annoyed about the state of investment advice in this country. “There is an amazing amount of silly beliefs and bad investment advice floating around,” Ric Edelman, founder and chairman of Edelman Financial Engines, told me during an interview at the New York Stock Exchange. Ric was

What’s the setup for August? Likely more volatile than July. Fed chairman Jerome Powell threw a modest curve ball at the market Wednesday when he did not automatically endorse additional interest rate cuts. If there is one thing that has made it easier for the bulls to stay bullish, it is the direction of rates.