Trader Talk

The good news on 2019 earnings is that a lot of bad news is already priced into the market, as seen by the very modest drop of 1.5 percent in Samsung shares on Tuesday after terrible guidance. The flip side is a lot of damage has already been done, and other companies will be similarly

The market action on Tuesday is telling us that an awful lot of bad news has been priced into the market. And it just keeps coming. Stocks are up in Europe and the U.S….on bad news. The big worry now is earnings. Overnight, Samsung said fourth quarter operating profit would decline 29 percent, to 10.8

I’ve been away visiting my father in Florida for a few days, but it’s remarkable how much sentiment has changed. I look at the major “worries” and I see big progress, particularly on the two biggest problems for the market: the Fed and China trade. 1) Fed and rates: Chairman Jerome Powell provided much greater

Worried about a down year in 2019? It’s statistically unlikely. 2018 is ending on a downer, with the S&P 500 down six percent (down four percent when dividends are included) for its first real down year since 2008 (the S&P was down 0.7 percent in 2015 on a price basis, but on a total return

Earnings 2019: Up, flat, or down? What happens to markets in 2019? It depends on your outlook on earnings. Fourth-quarter earnings have much less weight than usual, since everyone is concerned that the estimates for 2019 (currently 8 percent earnings growth) are too high and will be coming down. Seventeen companies have reported earnings for

The Wall Street Journal reports Apple has lost nearly $9 billion this year buying back its own stock. Apple is one of those buyback monsters that has spent significant money to buy back their stock, not just this year but since 2013 Apple’s share count has declined from 6.5 billion shares to 4.5 billion —

The January Barometer is one of Wall Street’s favorite seasonal gauges. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, it has registered only nine major errors since 1950 and been accurate 74.6 percent of the time. If relatively flat years are excluded, the accuracy rate gets even better: 86.6 percent. But in a year when a lot

A Santa Claus rally, which would begin on Monday, is a very specific event: the tendency for the market to rise in the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, good for an average gain of 1.3% in the S&P since 1950, according to the Stock Trader’s

I sat down with UBS’ Art Cashin at the bar at Bobby Van’s steakhouse across the street from the NYSE for our annual look back/look ahead. Art and I both agree that the big story for 2018 was the return of volatility. Here are Art’s thoughts on what’s in store for 2019. “I think perhaps

It’s official: This is an all-time record year for corporate stock buybacks. Announced buybacks for 2018 are now at $1.1 trillion. And companies are using their authorizations. About $800 billion of stock has already been bought back, leaving about $300 billion yet to be purchased. We’ve seen buyback announcements recently from Lowe’s, Pfizer, and Facebook,

I can’t be the only person who has a problem with the consensus on the election and the markets. The consensus view is that the Democrats will take the House and the Republicans will keep control in the Senate, and that this combination will be good for stocks because gridlock is traditionally good for stocks.

The market is boxed in due to the problems with global growth and the Federal Reserve. Monday’s decline in tech stocks cannot be blamed exclusively on Apple. Lumentum, one of Apple’s facial recognition suppliers, reduced its outlook for the quarter, citing a reduced shipment request from one of its biggest customers, which everyone assumes is

A good part of 2019 earnings expectations could depend on a tariff deal between President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Now that the highly anticipated Jerome Powell speech is out of the way and the G-20 summit is gathering, the market can begin to try to decipher 2019 earnings estimates. The Powell speech

The markets bottomed Thursday, with the Dow falling 700 points in the morning, right at the November lows. Then, it rallied back 600 points, a very positive bounce off deeply oversold conditions. But the buying interest still seems tentative. A number of factors contributed to the afternoon rally. The Atlanta Fed’s Ralph Bostic said “interest

The market is paying far more attention to the negatives than the positives. On Monday, it was Brexit, technical breakdowns, and perhaps more worry over the Mueller investigation. “I think that Santa’s making his own list and traders are making a list that has more than a few negatives on it,” UBS Art Cashin quipped

Let’s call this one “Disaster averted.” Tencent Music. the China-based streaming app, priced its IPO at the NYSE at $13, the low end of the range, opened on Wednesday at $14.10 and pretty much stayed there all day, closing at $14. The big story is that the deal got done at all. It was supposed

The markets have a new problem. Positive talk on trade is starting to play out as a market mover. Stocks rose in Tuesday’s premarket session after President Donald Trump tweeted to “watch for an announcement” on China and trade. Tweet The optimism lasted for all of an hour after the open, though. Stocks started coming

The No. 1 risk to markets in 2019? It will surprise you. The company tasked with clearing and settlement for the financial markets is warning that “pockets of weakness” are starting to emerge across the financial system. Surprisingly, the biggest risk to markets going into the new year is the threat of a cybersecurity attack,

J. P. Morgan’s Marko Kolanovic released his 2019 outlook this morning. He’s still overweight equities and underweight bonds, with projected earnings growth of 8 percent for the S&P 500 and a price target for the index of 3,100. He seems stumped about why there is such a disconnect between what he views as strong market