Moderna Earnings: What Happened with MRNA

^{Source: Predictions based on analysts’ consensus from Visible Alpha}

Moderna (MRNA) Financial Results: Analysis

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) reported Q3 FY 2021 earnings that missed analyst expectations. Earnings per share (EPS) came in positive for the third straight quarter in a row but missed analysts’ consensus estimates. Revenue was also below analyst expectations. Moderna’s revenue of $5.0 billion, which was up significantly from the $157 million posted in the year-ago quarter, was driven by sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company’s shares fell as much as 11% in pre-market trading. Over the past year, Moderna’s shares have provided a total return of 400.8%, well above the S&P 500’s total return of 38.3%.

MRNA Vaccine Developments

Moderna’s primary source of revenue is through sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company’s vaccine was approved for emergency use in the U.S. by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in December 2020. On Oct. 20, 2021, the FDA amended its emergency use authorization (EUA) for the vaccine, approving it for use as a single booster dose at least six months after the first initial doses for the following individuals: those 65 years of age and older; those aged 18 to 64 at high risk of severe COVID-19; and those aged 18 to 64 with frequent institutional or occupational exposure to the virus.

Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine received a slight setback recently after the FDA told the company that it needs more time to finish its assessment of the EUA of the vaccine for adolescents aged 12 to 17. Specifically, the agency said it needed to evaluate recent international analyses of the risk of myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart muscle, after vaccination. The FDA said its review may not be completed before January 2022.

Moderna noted in its third quarter earnings press release that its COVID-19 vaccine has been granted EUA or emergency use listing by the World Health Organization (WHO) and health agencies in over 60 countries. A number of health agencies, including the U.S. FDA as mentioned above, have also authorized a booster dose for the vaccine. Moderna expects that booster market sales in the 2022 fall season in the U.S. could reach $2 billion.

The company is also working on developing vaccines against variants of COVID-19, such as the beta and delta variants. These vaccines are at various stages of development. Moderna is also developing vaccines and other medications using mRNA technology. Its vaccine against cytomegalovirus, a common virus for people of all ages, has entered into the third phase of development.

MRNA Outlook

Moderna estimates that total deliveries of its COVID-19 vaccine in FY 2021 will be between 700 million and 800 million doses. It expects to realize between $15 billion and $18 billion in product sales in FY 2021. These figures are down from forecasts made in the company’s second quarter earnings press release. At that time, Moderna expected to deliver between 800 million and 1 billion doses in FY 2021. It also expected product sales for the fiscal year to be $20 billion.

Moderna Earnings Call Recap

On an earnings call with investors, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Stephane Bancel said Moderna’s supply chain has became “more complex,” affecting international deliveries of its COVID-19 vaccine. “We’ve increased deliveries to many countries around the world,” he said. “At the beginning of the year, we supplied to just a few large countries.”

The company’s next earnings report (for Q4 FY 2021) is estimated to be released on Feb. 23, 2022.