Daily coronavirus infections are rising in India again after weeks of steady decline, fuelling anxieties about the threat of a third wave in a country still reeling from the disease’s last devastating surge.
The Covid-19 reproduction rate, or the average number of people to whom an infected person transmits the virus, has risen above 1, indicating that the disease is once again entering an expansionary phase in the country.
The reproduction rate had fallen to about 0.7 in May, the peak of the second wave, when strict lockdown measures helped slow the spread of the more infectious Delta variant.
But with restrictions eased and business activity bouncing back towards pre-pandemic levels, India’s average daily confirmed cases rose 6 per cent, to 40,460 cases per day, in the week ending Aug 1.
VK Paul, the head of the Covid-19 task force, warned that the increasing reproduction rate was “truly a matter of concern” and said it was an important reminder that the pandemic was still “raging”.
Brian Wahl, a New Delhi-based epidemiologist for Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the escalating infection numbers could still be contained.
“Case are increasing and it could be the beginning of a third wave. However nothing is yet written in stone,” he told the Financial Times. “This should be a call for people to mask up, to minimise social interactions if they can and to get vaccinated.”
Although experts consider a third wave almost inevitable, many believe it will not hit India as hard as the catastrophic previous outbreak unless a more virulent variant emerges.
A seroprevalence study last month by the Indian Council of Medical Research found that about two-thirds of Indians aged over six already had antibodies from exposure to the virus.
“Under the current circumstances, there is a high likelihood of a third wave but it would be most likely of less intensity than the second wave,” Wahl said. “The big wild card is the emergence of a new variant with immune escape potential.”
The uptick in infections has been concentrated in eight regions, many popular tourist destinations that have attracted a surge of visitors since lockdown was eased, including Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir.
The coastal state of Kerala has been the hardest hit, with 23,676 new infections reported on Tuesday and a test positivity rate of almost 12 per cent.
The recent national seroprevalence study found that just 44 per cent of people in Kerala had been exposed to the virus, far below the national average, which has left a greater portion of residents susceptible to infection.
But experts warned that cases in other states with poorer testing infrastructure may also be surging undetected.
India is administering about 4.8m Covid-19 jabs a day. Just less than 8 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated and 27 per cent have received at least one dose. Although demand for shots is high, the pace of vaccination has been hampered by a scarcity of jabs.