Silver markets have pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Thursday to reach down towards the bottom of the range that we have been in for almost 2 weeks. Ultimately, this is a market that is trying to figure out where to go next because silver has so many different things pushing it at the same time. The most obvious place that is influencing silver is the stimulus situation, which seems to be a bit of a moving picture.
Nonetheless, I do think that stimulus is coming, and I do think that most of the market is prepared for that. However, on the other side of the equation we have the interest rate situation in the 10 year, which is breaking above the 1.30% level again. That is a major resistance barrier and should lead to higher yield potentially. In other words, the “precious metal” part of the trade is going to suffer.
Stimulus is the one thing that may lift silver and make it more attractive than its cousin gold, but at the end of the day this is probably going to be looking very much like a choppy market more than anything else. With that in mind, I still am bullish longer term, but I realize that silver probably has a lot of work to do to reach towards the $30 level. If we can break above the $30 level, that will more than likely send this market looking towards $50 over the longer term. I think that is going to take a Herculean effort though, so in the meantime I think most traders will simply be fined going back and forth with a slightly upward bias.