Since the coronavirus pandemic erupted, a lurking fear for scientists and politicians has been the emergence of a “mutant” strain making it more dangerous. The variant that has prompted the UK to impose a Christmas clampdown takes the health emergency into a new phase. It does not, so far, appear to cause more serious symptoms or higher mortality rates, or be more resistant to vaccines. But its higher transmission rate makes containing it even more demanding. Since the same variant has been found in the Netherlands, Denmark, Australia and elsewhere, more countries internationally may soon be grappling with the same problems.
The new variant’s unusually large number of mutations appear to help it to infect human cells. Since emerging in Kent in September it has rapidly supplanted older variants in south-east England. Modelling suggests it raises the R value, or average number of people to whom an infected person passes on the virus, by at least 0.4.
Since even strict lockdowns in the UK have struggled to bring the R value much below 1.0 — where the pandemic starts to shrink — that suggests, worryingly, that the “armoury” of existing measures may be exhausted. A particular concern is that, apparently thanks to the new variant, cases were latterly rising in the south-east even during England’s November lockdown.
That makes the rapid rollout of vaccinations even more vital. After becoming the first western country to authorise the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine on December 2, the UK’s inoculation programme has had an encouraging start — in contrast to many of the government’s other virus handling efforts. About half a million people were expected to have had the first of two jabs by the end of Sunday. Even then, vaccinating the 25m middle-aged, elderly and vulnerable people on the initial priority list is a daunting task.
With new UK cases topping 35,000 on Sunday, the “trace” element of the still-sputtering track and trace system is likely to be swamped. But however imperfect its results, mass, rapid testing will be vital to living with the new strain. With signs that the mutated virus spreads more rapidly among the young, mass testing may be key, too, to chances of reopening schools in January. The government will need to consider whether it should scrap exams at 16 and 18 in England next summer, as some other UK nations have, and what to replace them with, to avoid the chaos seen this summer.
The prospect of extended lockdowns means the Treasury must adopt a more strategic plan for supporting jobs and laid-off workers than its piecemeal approach since the first lockdown was eased in the summer. While some sectors can continue in Covid-safe modes of working, the retail and hospitality sectors, especially hard-hit by tighter restrictions, are also Britain’s largest and fourth-largest employers.
Above all, the UK must aim for maximum transparency and co-operation with its partners to avoid adding the shock of trade restrictions to its domestic economic woes. Though travel bans on UK citizens were perhaps inevitable, the government was wrongfooted by France’s 48-hour closure of cross-Channel freight. A testing regime may provide a way forward, but keeping goods flowing in and out is vital to maintaining economic activity.
For the UK and the world, it is now clear the understandable euphoria over the appearance of vaccines must be restrained. Dealing with coronavirus was always going to be a marathon; for already exhausted governments and citizens, the new strain pushes the finish line a little further away.