Germany’s hospitals are bracing themselves for an influx of Covid-19 patients in the coming weeks as health experts warn of an “exponential” rise in new infections.
The country has recorded one of the lowest numbers of Covid fatalities among the large industrialised countries, and its infection rates have been far less alarming than other EU nations such as France and Spain.
But its enviable record in handling the pandemic took a hit this week as infections jumped from about 2,000 a day to more than 4,000 — the highest level since early April, when the pandemic was at its height.
Now the heads of some of Germany’s biggest hospitals are warning that the situation could easily get out of control.
Speaking at a press conference on Friday, Ulrich Frei, head of medical care at Berlin’s Charité hospital, said: “We have the beginning of exponential growth [in infections].”
Dr Frei warned that Germany’s hospitals were inadequately prepared for a big wave of new cases. At the height of the pandemic, the federal government ordered hospitals to free up capacity for Covid patients by postponing all planned operations. But they have since returned to business as usual.
“Our hospitals are full now, the intensive care wards are full, and . . . that means that we don’t have the room for manoeuvre that we had then, when we curtailed elective procedures,” Dr Frei said.
Heyo Kroemer, chief executive of Charité, said three to four weeks ago that the hospital had fewer than 10 Covid patients on ventilators in its intensive care ward. But “for the last two weeks that phase is definitely over”, he said.
“Our admission numbers are rising, the number of patients on ventilators is rising,” he said. “Just as in March and April we will be forced to restrict our usual clinical activities and concentrate on the seriously ill Covid patients.”
He said similar developments had been seen in Cologne and other big German cities.
Dr Kroemer drew parallels with Paris, which he said was about a month ahead of Germany. Hospitals in the French capital had about 2,800 patients in intensive care in April, but that fell to 181 in September. “Now they are predicting it will rise to 1,000,” he said. “And, with a certain time lag, we will see the same thing.”
Germany has traditionally boasted a surfeit of intensive care beds, and ministers have insisted the health system was well-equipped to deal with a new upsurge in Covid cases. But doctors complain of an acute shortage of medical staff — a problem that has long afflicted Germany’s health sector but has been exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic.
Dr Jürgen Graf, chief executive of Frankfurt’s university hospital, said more of his staff had tested positive for coronavirus in the past 14 days than during three months in the spring and summer, partly because of the return of holidaymakers from abroad and the relaxation of the strict shutdown of March and April.
“There will be a real bottleneck in the provision of care if we don’t succeed in keeping our staff healthy and fit for work,” he said.
In recent days, ministers have repeatedly warned of the danger of an explosion in Covid cases. Christian Drosten, head of Charité’s institute of virology and the public face of Germany’s battle against the pandemic, said the country could lose the “special status” it had enjoyed internationally thanks to the decisive action it took in the early phase of the outbreak.
Berlin, singled out as one of the hotspots of the latest surge, has imposed new restrictions to slow the spread of the virus, closing all bars and shops from 11pm to 6am and setting a strict upper threshold on social gatherings.
Michael Müller, the city’s mayor, blamed the uptick of cases on people partying in large groups — “standing close to each other for hours, touching each other, singing and consuming alcohol” — and on smaller parties in enclosed spaces where social distancing rules were not being observed.
He appealed to 20 to 40-year-olds across the country, saying “now is really not the time to party”. This group had a special responsibility, he said, to “protect older people and to prevent an explosion in the infection numbers”.