From a President Trump re-election win of ‘historic proportions’ to a coin toss…
Editor’s Note: The purpose of this article is to stimulate critical thinking, especially for those who think Trump can’t lose in 2020.
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(by Half Dollar) The 2020 election is now a toss-up?
There used to be only one thing that could have derailed Trump’s chances:
Back in October, Jim Rickards said it was smooth sailing for Trump.
Specifically, about the 2020 election, Jim said this (bold added for emphasis):
The economy will be the deciding factor in next year’s election.
And this:
In fact, presidents running for a second term almost always win reelection unless there is a recession late in the first term. That’s what cost Bush and Jimmy Carter their reelections.
Otherwise, it’s smooth sailing for second-term victories. The good news for Trump is that he fits the mold of presidents heading for reelection.
A new projection by Moody’s shows Trump winning as many as 351 electoral votes (only 270 electoral votes are needed to be president). Moody’s analysis is based on state-by-state economic conditions and historic voting patterns, not polls.
Trump should win all of the swing states (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin) and pick up new states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia). It looks like a victory of historic proportions for Trump — as long as he avoids a recession.
In other words, it all comes down to the economy.
Jim repeated pretty much the same thing again in February, which is after the world already knew of the crazy developments in Wuhan:
I won’t even get into why Jim said a recession is “unlikely”.
That said, if anybody is having trouble understanding whether the economy is booming or collapsing, well, it’s because we have this type of dishonesty (bold added for emphasis):
President Trump delivered his State of the Union speech last night. He talked a lot about the booming economy and stock market, which are his main strengths heading into this year’s election.
Since I refuse to sell myself out and jump on the Trump Train because I know Trump is a Deep State Globalist in Patriot’s Clothing who is acting like he’s doing good things for the country but is really selling what’s left of America down the river, it’s not hard to understand economic reality on Main Street and write about it honestly.
But when people who otherwise know the truth about the conditions on Main Street, yet revert to lies and propaganda all for a click or the sale of a book, what’s the word for that?
Meh.
Doesn’t matter.
Moving on.
In the same article, Jim doubles-down on the only thing that could cause Trump to lose (bold added for emphasis):
The only factor that can realistically derail Trump, barring the unforeseen, is a recession between now and November. That’s unlikely. While the economy is sluggish, my models aren’t telling me that a recession is likely before the election. So Trump is on track for reelection. Even some of Trump’s harshest critics agree he stands an excellent shot this fall…
Is Jim truly being honest in saying the economy is merely “sluggish”?
Regardless, economic collapse was not unforseen, nor was the pandemic.
I mean, I’ve been writing about the coming economic collapse for years, and with regards to the unforseen in 2020, well, we began discussing the Wuhan Coronavirus on January 20th on Silver Doctors Live, so many, many people understood what was coming.
But I digress.
Nonetheless, Jim was super-bullish on a Trump victory only months ago (bold added for emphasis and commentary):
She points out that Trump has a “locked-in base” (which is true). That gives Trump considerable leeway to expand his support since he does not have to worry about his base. Importantly, she recognizes that presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, not by a majority of the popular vote.
Quite the confidence there.
I would say to not underestimate the “single issue voter”, and to that end, with Trump’s non-stop flip-flopping and avoiding of campaign promises, it seems a great many single issue voters will turn on Trump.
Of course, I say that under the assumption that we have a legitimate election system, which I personally do not assume.
That is to say, I do not think Candidates are elected by We the People, but rather, I think our election system is corrupt and fraudulent, or, to use a more understood term, rigged, and the President, or any politician of any real significance for that matter, is simply selected by the Deep State Globalists.
Still, just months ago, it sure seemed like Trump couldn’t lose:
This means Trump could lose the popular vote by as much as 5 million votes (in 2016 he lost to Hillary Clinton by 3 million votes) and still win reelection by the Electoral College. This is because Democrat votes are heavily concentrated in New York and California. Those states are certain to vote Democratic, but millions of extra votes over a simple majority are wasted because they provide no additional electoral votes.
Meanwhile, Trump’s support is spread more evenly among important states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania that collectively give him an Electoral College edge.
Finally, Liasson points out that turnout is critical. It doesn’t matter if you have fewer supporters as long as you have higher turnout. That’s another Trump advantage that does not show up in opinion polls. Liasson may be a Trump-basher, but she has practically written the playbook for how Trump will win.
And right now, he’s on course to.
So yeah, besides the obligatory “you can’t say I’m wrong because I never said it was 100% guaranteed”, and i’m paraphrasing there, Jim’s message is pretty clear (paraphrasing again, yes, with quotes): “Trump’s basically a shoe-in”.
Or is that not what Jim had been saying for many months?
Well, fast forward to July of 2020, and Jim is out with a brand new article with his analysis on the election.
And now?
It’s a toss-up!
That’s right.
And it’s not looking good for Team Trump right now.
From today’s article, and Jim Begins (bold added for emphasis and commentary):
Right now, Trump is not responding well or showing leadership; he’s just blaming others and complaining about the Democrats.
So there are your choices. Trump brings more social unrest, and Biden brings mental health issues that will lead to his removal. As they say in sports betting, “Pick ’em.”
Would the Deep State really remove Biden?
Here’s Jim’s change of mind, plain as day (bold added for emphasis and commentary):
I said earlier that if the election was held today, Trump would lose. But because so much can happen over the next four months, my forecast for the outcome of the presidential election is still a toss-up.
Let let’s follow the logic: For months and months, Jim said the only thing that could lead to a Trump defeat would be a recession, and not only do we now have a recession on our hands, but we also have not even an economic depression on our hands but an economic collapse.
Jim continues (bold added for emphasis and commentary):
Now, a toss-up is bad news for Trump because he had a 74% probability of winning as recently as January.
But that has gone by the boards as a result of the pandemic, the depression, the more recent riots and Trump’s inability to understand that a different type of leadership is required when the crisis is not strictly political.
Say what?
I thought the whole point of Trump was that he was an outsider who was not a Politician?
Geez, there I go for thinking.
What an idiot I am!
Here’s the key takeaway (bold added for emphasis and commentary):
The key takeaway is that the Trump-Biden contest is still basically 50-50.
It’s still a 50-50 chance?
Wasn’t Trump always a shoe-in for re-election?
Interestingly, Jim says this (bold added for emphasis and commentary):
The polls could simply be underestimating Trump’s support — a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the idea of the “hidden Trump voter.”
I say the “polls” could just as easily be underestimating Trump’s loss of support due to the single issue voter, who may indeed become the “silent majority”.
Still, more on the newfound nail-biter of a race (bold added for emphasis and commentary):
At the same time, Trump’s difficulties do not mean clear sailing for Biden. The biggest single variable in success or failure in electoral politics is not polling but turnout.
These two trends — Trump’s lagging in the polls and Biden’s lag in enthusiasm — will help define the presidential race over the next four months.
So the economy is not what it’s about after all, now that the it’s obvious we’re in the economic collapse?
How convenient.
Jim continues:
In addition to the pandemic and the economy, which are the dominant factors, other campaign themes will include Trump blaming China for the pandemic and Biden attacking Trump’s handling of the pandemic.
I guess I stand corrected.
While people are absolutely certain the coronavirus is a bio-weapon, and those dang Chinese commies are to blame, I mean, who could have ever seen the pandemic coming in the first place, right?
So yeah, it seems Jim Rickards has changed his mind.
Because Trump’s re-election was pretty much a sure thing.
It was baked in the cake.
But now, not so much (bold added for emphasis and commentary):
Both candidates have a path to victory. For Biden, it’s keeping a low profile and hoping to coast to victory on the anti-Trump feeling in the country. For Trump, it’s getting past his petty feuds and laying out a vision for a second term.
In politics, something beats nothing every time.
The election will be close no matter what happens. That was always in the cards.
So just disregard the “victory of historic proportions” Jim wrote about just months ago.
Because a close election was always in the cards!
Here’s why all of this matters: People wonder why it’s taking so long for gold & silver to finally break free from the cartel’s grip.
In my opinion, and in the form of a gross oversimplification: When “good guys” in the gold and silver space spread disinformation, misdirect, are dismissive, have sold themselves out, or worse, more of the same old same old is what we get.
I’d say more, but I’ll bite my tongue.
For now.
Half Dollar’s Note: Lest anybody accuses ‘Ol Half Dollar of bashin’ who some people call the “good guys”, I’ve invited Rickards on Silver Doctors for an interview many times, to which I’ve never had any replies.
The same goes for many other experts and gurus who refuse to talk to me because I refuse to put on the knee-pads and spew the lies that Trump is putting America First.
He’s not.
He’s a Deep State Globalist in Patriot’s Clothing.
He’s putting himself first, and for the Deep State Globlaists, he’s putting a totalitarianism, fascist Police State first.
That’s what Deep State Globalists do.
And sadly, when it comes to Trump, his fans (and pumpers) love it.
Of course, when it comes to anybody I ever write about, or any controversial topic I write about for that matter, such as Bitcoin, or market manipulation, or whatever, I’m quite willing to talk about it with the specific people or experts regarding said controversy (ex. Peter Brandt, etc).
Just send an email to “[email protected]”
We’ll do the show live too, and that way I can’t be accused of slanting the conversation or shaping the narrative with post-interview editing.