There is only a 7% chance that Bitcoin will surpass the $20,000 USD valuation milestone by the end of 2019, according to data published by Skew.

It’s been a pretty hectic year for BTC, which has seen its value swing from around the $3,800 USD mark at the beginning of the year to as high as nearly $13,000 USD in July. The summer months have seen the wildest fluctuations, with valuation jumping over 20% in the space of a few days. The $10,000 USD mark is seen as a major psychological milestone for the cryptocurrency, as is $20,000 USD, which we may see BTC hit at some point in the near future.

However, October promises to be a watershed moment as the US Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) is set to announce its decision on whether or not it has approved three Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund applications. Interestingly, Skew’s report is more pessimistic than many others with crypto trader and analyst Murad Mahmudov tweeting “~10K is the new ~6K, but instead of breaking down it will hold and start grinding UP. You heard it here first.” Bitcoin’s market dominance hit new highs last week, so perhaps this optimism is justified.

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Another, considerably more bullish outlook for BTC came from Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead, who said in July, “[Our forecast] put Bitcoin at $42,000 at the end of 2019, which I know sounds crazy but essentially, we’re halfway back there. It’s right on the trend line, and I think it’s a good shot that by the end of the year, we hit that.” While that does sound like a very optimistic view, and very at odds with Skew’s outlook, BTC value is prone to some big surprises, and so it does not look beyond the realms of possibility.

The closest BTC has come to the $20,000 USD milestone was in December 2017 when it reached $19,345, and we’re all well aware of the crash that followed. While all of these assessments are just essentially well-informed speculation, BTC remains highly susceptible to volatility. Where do you see Bitcoin going by the end of the year?