December Chicago Business Barometer adjusted lower


LONDON — The December Chicago Business Barometer was revised down to 63.8 from 65.4 previously, following the annual seasonal adjustments.

Growth was revised higher in Q1 and Q2, and was unchanged in Q3. However, a downward revision to Q4 saw the Barometer unchanged over 2018 to one decimal place.

November saw the largest revision, with the Barometer revised down 2.9 points to 63.5 from its initial estimate of 66.4. Activity in the second half of the year was revised down by 3.5 points, led by the downward November revision made to the Barometer. In the first half of the year, growth was revised up by 2.8 points, suggesting economic activity cooled during the latter stages of 2018 after higher growth over H1 2018 than initially estimated.

Of the five components that make up the headline Barometer, it was Order Backlogs that saw the biggest downward revision over H2 2018, revised down by 1.1 points. Production and New Orders were also revised down over the second half of 2018, both by 0.7 points. Employment and Supplier Deliveries were revised higher over the second half, by 0.1 and 0.3 points respectively. Inventories, which does not contribute to the Barometer, was revised higher by 0.3 points over H2 2018, but lower by 0.1 points over 2018.

All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the Census X-13 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually in January.

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