Poll tracker: how will the SNP fare in Scotland’s May elections?

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The Scottish National party is on course to be the largest group in the Scottish parliament after May elections, although it may struggle to secure an overall majority, according to a poll of polls by the Financial Times.

The FT is tracking opinion polls about voting intentions ahead of the elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments on May 6.

These elections could have a big influence on the future shape of the UK. Notably, the pro-independence SNP, led by first minister Nicola Sturgeon, intends to demand a referendum on whether Scotland should leave the UK if it wins next week.

The impact of a move by former first minister Alex Salmond to launch a new pro-independence party called Alba is uncertain, with polls suggesting a wide range of possible outcomes. Alba could win a clutch of seats to create what Salmond calls a pro-independence “supermajority” — or none at all.

British prime minister Boris Johnson is opposed to allowing another Scottish independence referendum following the plebiscite in 2014 when Scots rejected leaving the UK by 55 per cent to 45 per cent.

The FT poll of polls meanwhile suggests the Labour party is likely to be the biggest group in the Welsh parliament after May 6, but it may find it difficult to secure an overall majority.

Members of the parliaments in Edinburgh and Cardiff are elected using a voting system based partly on proportional representation.

Constituency representatives are elected using the first past the post voting system. Additional representatives are elected based on the proportion of votes a party secures in a region comprising several constituencies.

The hybrid voting system used for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments presents a high bar for a party to secure a majority of seats.

Scotland

The constituency vote

Opinion polls for the 73 Scottish parliament constituencies show the SNP narrowly ahead of their results at the last election in 2016.

The SNP, which gained power in Scotland in 2007, will be targeting Labour-held seats such as Dumbarton, East Lothian and Edinburgh Southern, and will also be hoping to seize marginal constituencies including Edinburgh Central, Aberdeenshire West and Ayr from the Conservatives.

If the SNP can gain these six seats, polls suggest it could win 65 constituencies: enough for an overall majority of just one seat in the Scottish parliament.

Chart tracking voting intention polls for the constituency vote in the Scottish Parliament election

The regional list vote

A further 56 members of the Scottish parliament are elected from party lists drawn from eight regions.

Polls suggest the pro-independence Scottish Greens could gain seats from the regional lists. The party is likely to do well enough to ensure there is a pro-independence majority in Edinburgh even if the SNP fails to achieve one on its own.

Salmond’s Alba is the wild card, with polls showing the party gaining between 1 and 6 per cent of the regional list vote across Scotland.

The actual result for Alba within this broad range, and how it is distributed across Scotland’s eight regions, will be crucial. The party will need to win about 5 per cent of the vote in one or more of the regions to have any representatives in the Scottish parliament. The FT’s Scottish interactive calculator illustrates some of the possible outcomes.

Chart tracking voting intention polls for the regional vote in the Scottish Parliament election

Scottish independence

Scotland is evenly split on its key constitutional question, with polls showing supporters and opponents of independence almost exactly level. Backing for Scottish independence increased during 2020 and averaged above 50 per cent for a time before dropping in recent months.

Analysts said the fall in support for independence may be partly due to the UK’s successful coronavirus vaccine rollout. A bitter rift between Sturgeon and Salmond could also be a factor.

Chart tracking support for Scottish independence over time since the referendum in 2014

Wales

The constituency vote

In the Welsh parliament, or senedd, 40 of its 60 members are elected from constituencies.

The Conservatives are polling better than their results at the last election in 2016 and analysis that assumes a uniform swing in the vote suggests they could make several gains at Labour’s expense in seats such as Wrexham, Gower, Vale of Clwyd and Vale of Glamorgan.

Labour has wielded power in Wales since devolution took effect in 1999 but its chances of securing a majority in Cardiff at the May 6 election look increasingly slim.

Chart tracking voting intention polls for the constituency vote in the Welsh Parliament election

The regional list vote

The remaining 20 members of the senedd are elected from party lists drawn from five regions.

With the UK Independence party, which won seven seats in 2016, now competing with Reform for pro-Brexit votes, and both groups languishing in the low single digits in recent polls, there is room for gains for both the Conservatives and Labour.

But polls also show enough support for Abolish the Welsh Assembly to give the anti-devolution party at least one seat in the senedd.

Chart tracking voting intention polls for the regional vote in the Welsh Parliament election

Welsh independence

Although far below Scottish levels and based on limited polling, support for Welsh independence has gradually increased since 2015, with a leap recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Chart tracking support for Welsh independence over time since 2015

Additional work by Andy Bounds, Mure Dickie, Oliver Elliott and Joanna S Kao

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