Employment Trends Index dips in Nov.

Bonds

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index fell to 110.41 in November from 110.73 in October, the board said on Monday.

On a year-over-year basis, however, the ETI remains positive registering a 4.4% gain.

“The Employment Trends Index declined slightly this month and shows some moderation after reaching its highest point so far in August,” said Gad Levanon, the board’s North American chief economist. “The gloom and doom views infecting the financial markets are an exaggeration. However, slower economic activity, tighter labor markets and higher labor costs are likely to lead to weaker job growth in 2019.”

November’s decrease in the ETI was fueled by negative contributions from three of the eight components: the ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers; initial claims for unemployment insurance; and the percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now.

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The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index works to show underlying trends more clearly.

“Jobs should continue to grow, causing faster wage growth which may in turn increase inflation pressure, and ultimately result in a moderation in employment growth by the end of 2019,” said Levanon. “As a result, we expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this month and possibly three more times in 2019.”

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the ETA include: percentage of respondents who say they find “jobs hard to get;” initial claims for unemployment insurance; percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now; number of employees hired bby the rtemporary help industry; ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers; job openings; industrial production; and real manufacturing and trade sales.

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